How the king's death and Trump's election will weaken US influence in Asia

An analysis of the situation in Asia following the death of the King of Thailand and the election of Donald Trump to the White House by Benjamin Zawacki.

Translation of an article by Benjamin Zawacki, author of the book:
Thailand: Shifting Ground Between the United States and a Rising China

My comments on the article are in brown

Cooling US-Thai relations weaken US influence in Asia

Benjamin Zawacki argues that the gradual loss of a strong US ally in the region will only be exacerbated by the death of the Thai king and the election of Donald Trump as US president.

Recent significant events in Thailand and the United States are more connected than they appear and will impact both nations for years to come.

In mid-October, Thai King Bhumibol Adulyadej , the American-born king most Thais have ever known, died after 70 years on the throne.

A month later, Donald Trump was elected the 45th president of the United States, defeating a candidate who had spent a quarter of a century in the corridors of American power.

Bilateral relations between these two allies, which were already at their lowest, are now at risk of declining even more rapidly.

Thailand and the United States were allies during World War II and the Cold War.

After taking the throne, King Bhumibol committed Thai troops to aid the war effort in Indochina.

When Bangkok finally rejected the 50,000 American troops based in Thailand in the mid-1970s, it was the king himself who assured them that it was only the end of one chapter and the beginning of another.

A decade of increased trade, refugee assistance, and large-scale joint military exercises followed.

The king reached the height of his power and international prestige in 1992, when he intervened amid violent unrest that resulted in the removal of a dictator and five years of democratic "spring" (Black May).

The king restored order during "Black May"

When Bill Clinton won the White House alongside Hillary , he supported Thailand's post-Cold War trajectory.

But the cooling began in 1997 with Clinton to Thailand's financial crisis, when he criticized the king's "self-reliance economy" policy .

His successor's "War on Terror," joined by Thailand's Prime Minister ( Thaksin Shinawatra ), often at odds with the monarchy, further strained relations.

George W. Bush 's illegal torture program began on Thai soil ( with Thaksin Shinawatra as Prime Minister ) and his response to a 2006 coup ( to oust Thaksin ) was contradictory and self-destructive.

On a visit two years later, Bush shocked his hosts by not meeting the king .

To better understand the events since the 1997 crisis and the cooling of relations between Thailand and the USA, it is important to know that George Soros (powerful banker), supporter of Clinton , Bush and Thaksin Shinawatra , had sunk the Baht during the crisis, and that this had allowed his protégé, Thaksin , to enrich himself and take power.

Then Thaksin attacked the monarchy and tried to implement Soros on the Open Society (ultra-liberal policy), programs totally opposed to the king .

Soros is behind the color revolutions around the world, including the Red Shirts (UDD) in Thailand, and he is currently also behind the anti-Trump protests in the USA.

You will find out more by reading this translation of an article by Tony Cartalucci on the forum.

Barack Obama and the Asian pivot, Bangkok the missing piece of the puzzle

By the time President Barack Obama put Thailand at the top of his travel agenda during his second term, he had virtually ignored the country for four years and failed to improve relations as he intended.

For Secretary of State Hillary Clinton , creating an American "pivot" in Asia would depend on long-time friends like Thailand.

Ironically, voters in the recent US election placed far more weight on Clinton State Department email scandal than on her foreign policy experience and insight.

Thus, following the death of the most staunch American ally in Southeast Asia since World War II, the pivot – and central role of Thailand – was also adopted in Clinton's platform.

So if Clinton had won, there would certainly have been strong support for the Shinawatra family and the UDD (Red Shirts).

Trump 's foreign policy agenda, meanwhile, was limited and largely incoherent during the election campaign, characterized by an isolationism that was both anachronistic and ill-advised.

After the king's death, how strong are China's ties with key regional allies?

Asian allies are important to the United States because China is not one of them.

Its expansion in Southeast Asia has been comprehensive and rapid, particularly in Thailand, which separates the important Strait of Malacca from the volatile South China Sea.

One-third of world trade and two-thirds of all oil and liquefied natural gas pass through the strait.

No less importantly, the Chinese capitalist model has increasingly been followed across the political spectrum.

The 2014 coup was a popular and prolonged protest against democracy.

The influence of American values ​​in the region has plummeted; how much more so could they under a president who holds them in low esteem?

As tens of millions of Thais mourn King Bhumibol Trump 's election , a precious relationship is abruptly pivoting in the wrong direction.

Source: South China Morning Post edition.