Is the strength of the Thai baht linked to regional scam networks?

As the Thai economy stagnates, the baht has recorded one of the strongest global gains in 2025, defying all financial logic.

Investigative journalists are advancing a troubling theory: the massive influx of funds from regional fraudulent call centers may have artificially supported the currency.

Why the baht is soaring despite an economy at a standstill

The Thai baht was the second-best performing currency in 2025, with a rise of nearly 10% against the US dollar, a surprising appreciation that does not match the underlying financial and economic fundamentals of the kingdom.

Observers and analysts have offered various explanations.

The most widespread theory suggests that the record performance of gold in 2025, up some 67% from the previous year, could be the cause, as Thailand is a major gold trading hub where transactions are often denominated in baht.

According to this theory, gold buyers buy baht, which drives up the value of the currency.

See also: Thailand: the rise of the baht linked to gold exports to Cambodia

Gold, cryptocurrencies, and suspicious financial flows

The Bank of Thailand and the Ministry of Finance have explicitly identified the strength of the baht as a problem requiring a solution.

To discourage capital inflows, the Bank of Thailand has asked banks this week to report all foreign exchange transactions exceeding $200,000.

The Ministry of Finance, meanwhile, is considering introducing a new tax on online transactions involving gold.

Of course, a strong currency is not always problematic.

One can expect strength when the economy is doing well, as investors enter the market and buy the local currency to seize local investment opportunities.

As a general rule, a stronger global demand for the local currency increases its value.

But the Thai economy is not doing well, far from it.

GDP growth is anaemic, slowing to 1.8% year-on-year in the third quarter, and has been for years.

Interest rates are low and therefore not very attractive to international investors looking for returns.

Household debt and public debt are both at worrying levels.

The negative consequences of an overvalued baht are numerous.

A strong baht makes imports cheaper, which weakens relative demand for competing locally manufactured products.

This decline in domestic demand weakens the local economy.

A strong baht also hurts millions of Thai farmers.

Agricultural products often have low profit margins and, in a highly competitive global environment, an overvalued currency can make the difference between profit and loss.

See: Baht too strong: Thailand is losing the rice battle

This also applies to Thai manufacturers already struggling who are export-oriented.

In addition, the crucial tourism sector is also suffering from the strength of the baht, which is increasing the cost of accommodation, transportation, goods and dining for visitors who spend foreign currency.

The number of arrivals has dropped by nearly 10% compared to last year, with tourists preferring to visit competing countries in the region.

The number of visitors has increased by nearly 20% this year in Vietnam and by nearly 15% in Malaysia, for example.

See: Rise in the baht: Thailand becomes too expensive for its loyal tourists

Overall, the baht is not appreciating because the Thai economy is strong.

A strong currency in such a weak economy therefore requires closer examination, as the damage and distortions it can cause are vast and profound.

So why is the baht so overvalued?

The answer may lie in recent headlines that seem unrelated.

Official Response from the Bank of Thailand

The Bank of Thailand has already responded to speculation linking the baht's strength to unidentified capital inflows or "grey money".

According to the regulator, a large statistical divergence observed in the balance of payments — often referred to as Net Errors and Omissions — corresponds to usual technical adjustments and does not prove the existence of illicit funds influencing the currency.

The central bank stressed that these discrepancies reflect the methods of data collection and revision, and that their latest revised figures were below historical and global averages for this type of discrepancy.

It also warned against interpreting these errors as a sign of 'grey money' and reaffirmed that several more conventional factors, such as a weak dollar, gold, and classic investment flows, remain the main explanations for the baht's rise.

See: Rise of the baht: Thailand's central bank responds to gray money rumors

Scam centers: the trail of massive money laundering towards the baht

Scam centers established in neighboring countries, particularly in Cambodia and Myanmar, are known to extract tens of billions of dollars annually from victims worldwide, including in Thailand.

These networks have recently become a hot political topic in the kingdom, following high-level involvement allegations that led to the resignation of a Finance Ministry official.

In October 2025, Thai Finance Deputy Minister Vorapak Tanyawong resigned after international media reported allegations of possible links to transnational scam networks operating particularly in Cambodia.

Vorapak categorically denied any personal or family involvement in these activities and stated that he would initiate defamation proceedings against his detractors, but chose to resign to avoid importing controversy into the government.

Experienced investigative journalists based in Singapore published detailed reports establishing a link between the revenues of Cambodian scam centers and capital inflows and money laundering in Thailand.

These reports state that majority stakes in a large Thai energy company and a large Thai financial company were illegally purchased through these massive fund flows.

They also identified major Thai banks as intermediaries for these illicit funds.

See also: Hard blow to cybercriminals in Cambodia and Myanmar

Journalists Bradley Hope and Tom Wright, formerly of the Wall Street Journal, are the same ones who detailed the extraordinary 1MDB scandal in Malaysia in their book 'Billion Dollar Whale'.

This work takes a lucid look at the shocking ease with which international criminals can transfer billions of dollars in stolen funds around the world and is very relevant in light of the current situation of scam centers in Thailand.

Wright and Hope examined financial flows from a modest share of a much larger pie.

Even in this case, the figures they detail amount to billions of illicit dollars entering Thailand.

Stolen assets are usually originally held by gangsters specializing in cryptocurrency scams, which need to be converted (laundered) into fiat currency, such as the baht, in order to be spent globally.

If Wright and Hope's information is accurate, this has led to huge purchases of Thai baht, which could explain the unusual appreciation of the currency.

To what extent is the inflated value of the baht due to these illicit flows?

It is difficult to calculate it accurately, given the scarcity of reliable public data.

Sean Turnell, a renowned Australian economist and financial expert, currently a senior researcher at the Southeast Asia program of the Australian think tank Lowy Institute, said:

« But this certainly has an impact, and this aspect deserves to be taken into account in the discussions and analyses of policymakers in the region ».

In addition, the gangsters behind these scams, typically Chinese organized crime groups and their local accomplices, are known to be well connected with each other.

Effective practices have spread rapidly among them.

A process that enabled huge amounts of cryptocurrency to be laundered from Cambodia to the Thai baht has probably been replicated by other gangsters in Cambodia, as well as those operating in neighboring countries, Myanmar and Laos.

It is possible that the scale of inflows into Thailand is much larger than Wright and Hope could have imagined.

Are the scammers and their criminal accomplices therefore responsible for the overvaluation of the baht and the damage it causes to the underlying Thai economy?

Of course, for these illicit flows to have a real impact on the value of the baht, the funds must remain in baht.

If they are converted into baht and then immediately converted into other currencies, the baht would be sold almost as quickly as it is bought.

When money from crime is invested in the Thai economy

But as Wright and Hope appear to have shown, much of this money remains effectively in Thailand, invested in Thai businesses and flowing through Thai bank accounts into real estate and other purchases.

One final factor explaining the strength of the baht could be that it is perceived as a regional 'safe haven'.

A significant proportion of the financial flows circulating in Southeast Asia on the mainland now comes from the vast scam industry.

In this context, being perceived as a 'safe haven' by criminal networks is certainly not the vote of confidence that Thailand and its financial system want to receive.

A systemic risk for Thailand

Significant illicit financial flows into the Thai baht raise sensitive questions for Thai politicians, bureaucrats, financiers, and law enforcement authorities.

But to protect the integrity of Thailand's banking and political system, these questions must be answered.

The well-being of millions of ordinary Thais depends on it.

See also:

Surprise drop in Thai baht at year-end after months of rise

Thailand aims for 39 million tourists by 2026, but the baht is a threat

The baht is soaring: the Thai currency is approaching 30 to the dollar

An article by Larry Dohrs, a retired economist and observer of Southeast Asian affairs for Asia Times