Thailand: Censorship debate puts government in danger

Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is the target of a two-day no-confidence debate beginning Monday, March 24.

However, opposition MPs should also take a close look at his father, former Prime Minister Thaksin, the man many accuse of being the kingdom's true ruler, although they are forbidden from mentioning him directly.

House Speaker Wan Muhamad Noor Matha barred MPs from mentioning Thaksin's name in the debate, allowing them only to use the phrase "members of the prime minister's family."

However, observers believe this could cause problems for Paetongtarn, potentially exposing the extent of his father's alleged influence over his government, despite having no official role.

The censure debate will take place on Monday and Tuesday, with the vote following the debate scheduled for Wednesday.

whips have allocated 28 hours to opposition MPs and seven hours to the coalition .

“The Shinawatra family before the country”

Thaksin Shinawatra with his daughter, Paetongtarn, outside his Bangkok home on July 26, his 75th birthday.

The opposition People's Party made six accusations against Prime Minister Paetongtarn in its no-confidence motion:

1. Lack of qualifications and suitability to hold the office of Prime Minister;
2. Ignores the country's problems and behaves irresponsibly;
3. Does not demonstrate obvious honesty and integrity;
4. Undermining the rule of law and the parliamentary system;
5. Tolerates corruption and conflicts of interest in his administration;
6. Allows his father to guide and manipulate important national issues while acting as his puppet prime minister.

Opposition leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut has highlighted a popular belief that Thaksin is the "real prime minister."

He claimed that Thailand's current political situation stems from a secret deal with the powers that be to bring Thaksin back to the country without him having to serve a prison sentence.

According to him, this benefited the Shinawatra family at the expense of the nation.

Natthaphong, leader of the People's Party, claimed the plot had blocked key campaign promises by the Pheu Thai Party, including rewriting the current junta-era constitution.

The People's Party wants to overthrow the government

Thai Parliament. Photo: Thairath

Olarn Thinbangtieo, a political science professor at Burapha University, believes the People's Party is aiming for a coup de grace to topple the government.

He stressed the need for the opposition party to impress voters in what could be the last no-confidence debate for 44 of its MPs, who face a lifetime ban from political activity.

These lawmakers were charged by the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) for violating ethical standards by sponsoring a 2021 motion to amend the lèse-majesté law.

"We can expect these MPs to make serious allegations during the no-confidence debate to prove their worth as opposition legislators," Mr Olarn said.

He also predicted that People's Party lawmakers would violently attack Paetongtarn to quell suspicions of a "secret deal" between the prime minister's father and Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, who founded the party's first incarnation, Future Forward.

See: An agreement will allow the formation of a next government in Thailand

Thanathorn is said to have retained a strong influence over successive 'orange parties'.

Olarn said the Speaker had unintentionally disadvantaged the government by prohibiting mention of Thaksin while allowing opposition MPs to refer to "members of the prime minister's family."

This opened the door to allegations that other members of the prime minister's family had secretly exerted influence on the government.

These include his aunt, former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, and his mother, Thaksin's ex-wife, Potjaman Na Pombejra.

Compromising secrets could be revealed

Prawit Wongsuwan, leader of the Palang Pracharath Party. Photo: US Secretary of Defense.

However, most political observers predict that the ruling coalition will once again survive the no-confidence vote, due to its parliamentary majority.

Olarn agreed that this was the most likely outcome if the opposition failed to present serious allegations supported by incriminating evidence.

He expects Paetongtarn to weather the storm of censure as opposition lawmakers bombard her with allegations of Thaksin's alleged privileges, but without providing any evidence.

Thaksin returned to Thailand after 15 years of self-imposed exile to serve an eight-year prison sentence for abuse of power in 2023.

However, after a six-month stay in the Police General Hospital and a royal pardon that reduced his sentence to one year, he was released on parole in February last year without spending a single night in prison.

See: Thailand: Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra released from prison

But Olarn said the government could still be brought down if the opposition uncovered an unreported conflict of interest scandal involving a government official or family member.

The analyst also suggested that General Prawit Wongsuwan, leader of the opposition Palang Pracharath party, could bring charges against Thaksin serious enough to bring down the government.

"I think the People's Party and Prawit could have a 'knockout'."

Prawit himself is both an opposition MP and an enemy of Thaksin.

"If he had nothing to explain (to the public), he would have already retired from politics," he said.

General Prawit, the figurehead of the junta formed after the 2014 military coup, is not known as an eloquent speaker.

However, he recently confirmed that he would participate in the interrogation of Prime Minister Paetongtarn.

Prawit was excluded from the coalition when the Paetongtarn government was formed.

See: Thailand: Surprising change of alliances before government formation

Observers expect him to reveal compromising secrets about his bittersweet association with Thaksin, which dates back to the latter's tenure as prime minister in the early 2000s.

However, his party's secretary-general, Paiboon Nititawan, said Prawit would only make general allegations without going into details.

Prawit came third in a recent poll asking the public who they most wanted to hear speak during the no-confidence debate.

Paetongtarn was the top choice with 42 percent, followed by Natthaphong (34 percent) and Prawit (12 percent), according to the Nida poll conducted from March 11 to 13.

In 2022, then-Deputy Prime Minister Prawit famously dismissed attacks by opposition MPs during a no-confidence debate with a simple sentence: their allegations against him were false.

Paetongtarn vs Natthaphong

Natthapong Ruengpanyawut, leader of the People's Party and Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra.

This will be the first time that Paetongtarn, 38, and Natthaphong, 37, have faced off as the main protagonists in a censorship debate.

Both are representatives of Thai Generation Y, that is, those born between 1981 and 1996.

Before entering politics in 2022, Paetongtarn had no experience in public administration, government policymaking, or even parliament.

His rapid rise to become leader of the Pheu Thai Party in October 2023 and then Prime Minister in August 2024 is generally attributed to his father's influence and connections.

The House of Representatives elected her as the country's 31st prime minister on August 16 last year, just two days after her predecessor, Srettha Thavisin, was removed from office by a Constitutional Court order.

See: New political crisis in Thailand after the dismissal of the Prime Minister

As the sole candidate for the post, she won the support of 319 MPs, far exceeding the simple majority of 248 required to secure the top job.

Natthaphong has more political experience than Paetongtarn, having participated in previous no-confidence debates as an MP for the now-defunct Move Forward party.

Initially a technology expert and business executive, he joined the new Future Forward party in 2018, which was dissolved by court order in 2020, before being reborn as Move Forward.

Shortly after Move Forward was dissolved by the Constitutional Court in August last year, Natthaphong unexpectedly emerged as the leader of its successor, the Peoples Party.

Analysts say he got the job because of his close ties to Thanathorn.

Within Future Forward, Thanathorn tasked the technology expert with overseeing the new party's digital platform, a position he retained after Future Forward's reincarnation as Move Forward.

Within Move Forward, Natthaphong served as Deputy Secretary General in charge of Data Systems and Digital Development.

He oversaw IT projects for both parties, including the development of an online fundraising platform that was hailed as a huge success.

Source: Thai PBS World