Thailand: end of reign for Thaksin? Pheu Thai on the brink

The Pheu Thai may face electoral collapse following Thaksin Shinawatra's latest judicial setbacks.

Since his return to Thailand in August 2023 after 15 years of self-exile, his party's election victory, and the reduction of his prison sentence from eight years to one year, served in a police VIP hospital

But in a few months, everything collapsed.

Return to prison, risk of sentence extension, and tax bill

The former Prime Minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, was transferred from Bangkok's provisional prison to Klong Prem Central Prison on Tuesday, September 9, 2025. Photo: Thai PBS World

Thaksin was returned to prison on Tuesday, September 9, as the Attorney General decided to appeal his acquittal in a lèse-majesté case and a Supreme Court ruling ordered him to pay 17 billion baht in unpaid taxes.

These latest two judicial setbacks could result in a longer prison sentence for him and darken the prospects of the former ruling party for the general election scheduled for late March.

Widely regarded as the patriarch and de facto leader of the Pheu Thai party, Thaksin is currently serving a one-year prison sentence handed down in early September by the Criminal Division of the Supreme Court for holders of political office.

The court ruled that Thaksin's transfer to the Police General Hospital in 2023 to serve his sentence was illegal and did not count as time served in prison.

This legal setback for Thaksin came just days after his daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, was removed from her position as Prime Minister by the Constitutional Court following the disclosure of a phone call with Cambodian strongman Hun Sen.

The Court found her guilty of ethical misconduct for attempting to appease Hun Sen and criticizing a Thai military commander responsible for the border during a dispute with Cambodia.

The phone scandal and the government's handling of the border conflict led by Pheu Thai have undermined the party's popularity, particularly among voters in the northeast, its traditional stronghold.

Pheu Thai has performed poorly in the northeast and other regions of the country in recent opinion polls.

Political counterattack: Pheu Thai aims to impeach the Prime Minister

Photo dating back to 2024 showing the current Prime Minister, then Deputy Prime Minister, Anutin Charnvirakul, in the company of the former Pheu Thai leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra and her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, at a karaoke party.
Photo: Maynatchira's Instagram account.

Associate Professor Olarn Thinbangtieo, Deputy Dean of the Faculty of Political Science and Law at Burapha University, said:

"Thaksin's latest judicial setbacks have immediately affected people's confidence in Pheu Thai, as he is the central figure and spiritual leader of the party."

He believes that the tax verdict, in particular, has seriously undermined Thaksin's credibility.

The analyst said that Pheu Thai now risks losing dozens of seats in the next election, predicting that the total number of its MPs could drop from 141 currently to between 50 and 60 in the worst case.

With its negotiating power rapidly diminishing under the blows of justice, the Pheu Thai will be forced to fight for its survival, said Olarn.

He believes that the second opposition party is currently mobilizing a censure debate in order to dismiss Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul as quickly as possible.

Once Anutin is dismissed, the Pheu Thai could return to power and regain its popularity during the remaining year of the legislature, which runs until 2027.

“Thaksin must play this game.

It is the only way for him to quickly regain power.

I think the Pheu Thai will table a censure motion (against Anutin),” said Mr. Olarn.

Anutin recently threatened to dissolve the House if a censure motion was tabled against his government when parliamentary business resumes on December 12.

He argued that calling a no-confidence debate would amount to political treason, as he has already agreed to dissolve the House by the end of January as part of an agreement with the main opposition party, the People’s Party.

The Prime Minister clearly wants to avoid a damaging no-confidence vote, which would occur if the Pheu Thai and the People’s Party joined forces against his minority government.

Any dissolution of the House must take place before the tabling of a no-confidence motion, as the Constitution prohibits dissolution once such a motion has been submitted.

Pheu Thai "in total disarray"

Former Prime Ministers Srettha Thavisin, left, and Paetongtarn Shinawatra after their party Pheu Thai's victory in 2023. Photo: Pheu Thai Party

According to analysts, the double legal headache faced by Thaksin could seriously undermine the popularity and finances of Pheu Thai before the next general election.

Suranand Vejjajiva, a former Pheu Thai member turned political commentator, believes that the latest judicial setbacks for the party patriarch are likely to weaken his political influence and credibility, leading to defections among Pheu Thai MPs.

He adds that potential rebels will find it easier to leave the party now that Thaksin has his hands tied by judicial matters.

"The current situation will plunge the party into disarray," predicts Suranand, who has served in governments led by Thaksin and his sister, Yingluck.

Associate Professor Yutthaporn Issarachai, a political scientist at Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, acknowledged that Thaksin's new legal problems would weaken the confidence of many Pheu Thai politicians in the party's electoral prospects.

According to him, this loss of confidence could in turn lead to massive defections among the party's MPs.

Thaksin's two new legal troubles are likely to have serious repercussions on Pheu Thai.

Thaksin's removal, considered the Pheu Thai's main backroom political negotiator, would put the party at a disadvantage in elections and in the post-election struggle to form a new coalition government.

In the absence of a strong candidate to take over Thaksin's role as the party's kingmaker, Pheu Thai's popularity and bargaining power will inevitably suffer, the analyst said.

Double problem

Statue of a woman symbolizing justice, holding a scale, placed next to a judge's hammer.

On November 17, new Attorney General Itthiphon Kaewthip ordered prosecutors to appeal Thaksin's acquittal in a royal defamation case resulting from an interview he gave to South Korean media in 2015.

The Criminal Court had previously dismissed the case on August 22, ruling that there was not enough evidence to show that Thaksin had insulted the monarchy, an offense punishable by up to 15 years in prison.

Itthiphon's decision contradicts the opinion rendered by an 11-member committee of the Attorney General's Office, which voted 8-2 in September not to appeal.

The Attorney General, who chaired the committee while holding the position of Deputy Attorney General, reportedly abstained from voting.

Just hours after the publication of the appeal ruling, the Supreme Court issued a separate decision regarding Thaksin.

It ordered him to pay a tax bill of 17.6 billion baht related to the sale by his family in 2006 of shares in Shin Corporation (renamed Intouch Holdings in 2014) worth 73.2 billion baht to the Singaporean company Temasek.

The verdict overturned the decisions of the lower courts in favor of the former Prime Minister, who had sued the Revenue Department to have his "illegal" tax assessment annulled.

The lawsuit filed by Thaksin invoked a technical detail, arguing that the Revenue Department had not followed the necessary legal procedure of summoning him to acknowledge the tax assessment before sending him a notification.

The court ruled that Thaksin had concealed his involvement in Shin Corp by transferring his shares to his children, Panthongtae and Pintongta, so that they could hold them in his name, as the law prohibits government ministers from holding shares in a private company.

The court judged that Thaksin's action constituted a "breach of tax ethics and a serious illegal transaction" that violated the spirit of taxation.

Victim or bad karma?

Former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen poses for a photo during his meeting with former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in Bangkok, Thailand. Photo posted on February 21, 2024 by Hun Sen on his Facebook account.

Thaksin's supporters, led by his children, legal advisers, and Pheu Thai politicians, claim he is a victim of injustice at the hands of the ruling elite.

Others claim that his recent legal setbacks are just the "karma" for his wrongdoings during his tenure as Prime Minister from 2001 to 2006.

Theptai Seanapong, a former Democrat MP, stated in a recent Facebook post that some Pheu Thai politicians appear to be portraying Thaksin as a victim to garner sympathy for him and his party among his unwavering supporters, the red shirts.

However, this once reliable support base has now weakened, meaning this strategy is unlikely to significantly boost Pheu Thai's popularity in the upcoming elections, Olarn concluded.

See also:

Southern Thailand: Received by bombs, Thaksin apologizes for the Tak Bai massacre

Thailand's King pardons Thaksin Shinawatra on his birthday

Police War in Thailand: The Shadow of Thaksin Shinawatra?

Source: Thai PBS World