Thailand must distance itself from the United States to preserve its interests

In the face of China's rising power and US economic pressures, Thailand must strike a delicate balance.

Experts urge Bangkok to avoid blind alignment and prioritize a multipolar strategy.

A forum recently organized by the International Media Club of Thailand (IMCT) highlighted China's rapid rise as a global competitor and the growing economic vulnerabilities of the United States.

The pressure exerted by Washington on the international scene is pushing countries in the Southern Hemisphere to align with China, with even India showing signs of moving away from its traditionally pro-American stance.

Strategic interests count

American flag with stars replaced by missiles.

Thanong Khanthong, chairman of IMCT, said Thailand must preserve its interests in this turbulent international context.

“Thailand cannot afford to blindly follow the United States.

Our approach must be based on negotiation and strategic leverage », he said.

He referred to high-level meetings, particularly the one between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Analysts had previously estimated that the risk of nuclear escalation in Eastern Europe was nearly 50%

According to him, these initiatives reflect broader global calculations, with China aiming to reduce tensions between Europe and Russia and focus on combating US economic and technological dominance.

He added that the US motivation was not military, but economic.

In twenty years, Washington has gone from being a partner to a rival of China.

To curb China's growth, the United States has launched a hybrid war made up of trade restrictions, technological competition, cyberattacks, and targeted tariffs to preserve Western dominance.

“We are currently witnessing a quasi-multidimensional war between the United States and China, which encompasses hybrid warfare, trade, technology, cyber operations, and targeted tariffs specifically aimed at weakening China,” he said.

Economic pressures are intensifying

Thailand and the trade war between the United States and China. Photo: Thailand Business News.

“China's rise to power is evident in many sectors.

From high-speed rail networks and national aeronautics production to renewable energy, electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, and the manufacture of smartphones and cutting-edge semiconductors.

“Beijing regularly challenges Western monopolies,” said Mr. Thanong.

In response, the United States has applied protective tariffs aimed at weakening China and forcing other nations to negotiate on its terms.

He said Thailand must resist the temptation to become a pawn in a zero-sum game.

He suggested exploring multilateral cooperation through emerging global frameworks such as the BRICS.

He warned that Trump's confrontation with the BRICS, where China plays a key role, brings the group's members closer together.

Even India is changing its mind.

A coordinated action by China, India, and Russia, along with digital currencies such as the yuan or Brics Pay, could weaken the US dollar's dominance and alter global geopolitics.

"Thailand's future lies in its adherence to multipolar economic systems, rather than its attachment to the United States, which has designed Indo-Pacific strategies aimed at containing China militarily," he said.

Kraisin Vongsurakrai, Deputy Secretary-General of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, analyzed Thailand's economic drivers:

Domestic consumption, exports, government spending and foreign investment are all currently showing signs of weakness.

Tourism provides temporary support, but cannot offset structural vulnerabilities.

He also noted that a large proportion of foreign investment in Thailand comes indirectly from China, although political instability remains a concern for investors.

A multilateral approach

Flags of the founding BRICS countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

The forum also explored the dynamics of global trade.

In 2022, the United States restricted its cooperation with China in the field of advanced technologies.

Mr. Kraisin said:

“China, for its part, has pursued its 'Belt and Road' initiative (new silk roads), established trusted national brands, and developed cutting-edge capabilities in AI and space.

China's performance is closing in on that of the United States, prompting Washington to impose restrictions on international support for Beijing's space and technology ambitions.

China's sustained investments in Thailand, coupled with the growing economic influence of the BRICS, are giving Bangkok the opportunity to engage in a multipolar world in flux rather than relying exclusively on Western partnerships.”

The BRICS' share of the global economy has surpassed that of the G7, rising from 16.9% in 1995 to 31.2% in 2023.

Brazil's announcement to reduce its dependence on the US dollar highlights the systemic changes reshaping global finance.

In this context, Thailand is facing US tariffs, restrictive taxes on Chinese imports, and trade pressures that limit its flexibility, making strategic negotiations essential.

Mr. Kraisin stated that the Thai private sector could not address these challenges alone.

He called on the government to intervene to coordinate industrial policy and reduce inequalities.

This would strengthen resilience and provide a solid foundation for negotiating from a position of strength on the regional and global stages.

“This year marks the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Thailand and China.”.

The business sector has organized activities and launched the Chinese Enterprise Association, which brings together around 400 renowned Chinese investors in Thailand, with the support of the Chinese Embassy.

The goal is to reduce dubious activities of Chinese companies in Thailand.

It is time for legitimate Chinese companies to come forward and contribute to gradually eliminating illegal activities », he said.

Perspectives

Flags of China and the United States on a world map and people in a city. Illustration: The Nation Thailand

As the United States and China continue their multidimensional rivalry, Thailand must find a delicate balance in its alignment.

Excessive dependence on Washington risks exposing it to trade and geopolitical conflicts, while ignoring Beijing could compromise growth and stability, he said.

Participants emphasized that Bangkok's strategy should focus on pragmatic negotiations, multilateral engagement, and internal reforms.

Mr. Thanong concluded:

"Thailand must break free from its dependence on the US market and adopt a multipolar strategy.

By doing so, we will preserve our interests and prepare for a future where negotiations, not blind alignment, will determine national success."

According to experts, Thailand should pursue its national interests rather than follow Washington's lead.

See also:

Vietnam: the new economic tiger threatening Thailand

19% tariff: Thailand's concessions to the United States

Trump imposes 19% tariffs on Thailand and Cambodia

BRICS+: Thailand strengthens its ties with China and Russia

Thailand's complex relations with the United States and China

Source: Bangkok Post