Thailand: restaurants fear a high-pressure year 2026

In Thailand, restaurants are worried about 2026, between incomplete tourist recovery, labor shortage, and rising operating costs.

This situation puts the entire sector under tension, with a more significant impact on independent restaurants.

Uncertain tourism and cost pressure

Tourists discuss around a drink in a pub on Khaosan Road, Bangkok. Photo: Pattarapong Chatpattarasill/Bangkok Post

Chanon Koetcharoen, President of the Restaurateurs Association, stated that the tourism sector's prospects are uncertain in terms of the number of travelers, which contributes to the difficulties faced by restaurants this year.

The sector is expected to continue facing a persistent labor shortage, with some employees preferring the career prospects and benefits offered by large restaurant chains, further intensifying the difficulties for small restaurants.

He added that meal delivery platforms are introducing advertising packages to improve restaurant visibility, which further increases operating costs.

This adds to the commissions on gross margin that restaurants have to pay to platforms.

Consumers are more cautious in their spending

Woman in a noodle soup restaurant in Thailand. Photo: Cho Pan

The first month of the year saw a decrease in consumer spending in restaurants, after a sharp increase during the New Year holidays.

According to Mr. Chanon, consumers are expected to remain cautious in their spending and focus on saving until the Songkran festival in April.

Some people, despite having similar income levels, become more cautious in their spending due to political and economic uncertainties, he said.

In addition, Mr. Chanon considers climate variability as another risk, as it could lead to fluctuations in ingredient prices.

Low revenue growth

The Pizza Company restaurant in Thailand.

The Economic Information Center (EIC) of Siam Commercial Bank forecasts a 3.2% growth for the restaurant sector this year, following an estimated 3.3% increase in 2025.

Revenue growth could be mainly due to the increase in food prices rather than an increase in attendance, noted the EIC.

Restaurants facing numerous challenges

Young Thai people in a restaurant. Photo: Pantip.

The report also highlighted the challenges faced by the sector, particularly rising costs, including the increase in daily minimum wage and higher expenses related to integrating technology into business operations.

According to the EIC, limited-service restaurants, such as fast-food and shabu-shabu chains, are expected to continue their expansion, with a projected growth of 2.7% in 2026.

This segment is more resilient in a difficult economy, as prices remain affordable for consumers and offerings benefit from standardized quality and consistent taste, the report notes.

However, full-service restaurants are expected to face more challenges than other types of restaurants, as customers remain cautious in their spending, according to the EIC.

See also:

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Source: Bangkok Post