According to the Thailand Tourism Council (TCT), the tourism confidence index in the fourth quarter of 2025 decreased compared to 2024.
- Thailand's tourism confidence index declined in the fourth quarter of 2025, despite an improvement from the previous quarter.
- Flooding in the south, the border conflict with Cambodia, and the strength of the baht weighed on the recovery.
- Operators' revenues have only recovered 50% of their pre-pandemic levels, while employment remains below par.
- The Tourism Council anticipates an improvement at the start of 2026, but highlights persistent risks related to smog, the geopolitical context, and the global economy.
This slow recovery is due to flooding in the south, the border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, and the strength of the baht.
The President of TCT, Chai Arunanondchai, stated that 2025 had been a difficult year despite an improvement during the high season.
See: 2025, a black year for tourism in Thailand: the machine has broken down
The survey conducted by the Council among 740 operators between November 10 and December 10 resulted in a tourism confidence index of 72, down from 75 the previous year, but improved from 66 in the third quarter.
The score remained below the benchmark of 100 recorded before the pandemic, confirming the fragility of the recovery.
Floods and regional tensions: persistent brakes on recovery
Floods in Songkhla Province in November 2025. Photo: Thai PBS World
Demand during the high season, the national co-payment program, and several events were unable to offset negative factors such as severe flooding in Hat Yai in November, which hindered the vast Malaysian market.
The border conflict with Cambodia in December also dampened foreign travelers' confidence, the TCT noted.
The strong baht and regional competition weigh on attractiveness
Passing by a currency exchange office in Thailand. Photo: Bangkok Post.
Mr. Chai stated that the strength of the baht against the US dollar and other currencies has prompted some tourists to change their destination.
See: The baht too strong threatens Thai tourism and exports
The more intense competition from Japan and Vietnam is also continuing to weigh on Thai tourism.
See: Tourism: Thailand on alert as Vietnam gains power
All regions of Thailand, except for the central and western regions, recorded a decline in tourism confidence in the fourth quarter compared to the previous year.
In terms of types of activities, the entertainment sector recorded the lowest index at 60, while restaurants had the highest index at 78.
Revenue and employment still far from returning to normal
Receptionists in a hotel in Thailand.
Tourism operators' revenues have only recovered 50% of their pre-pandemic levels.
Employment has recovered 81% of its pre-Covid level, down from 87% in the third quarter, as operators have curtailed their hiring and new investments.
Nationally, hotels and accommodations recorded an average occupancy rate of 55%, with the southern region showing the highest rate at 66%.
More favorable prospects at the start of 2026, but subject to conditions
Chinese New Year at the Puea Tao Kong Kao shrine in Khon Kaen. Photo: Let's Go!
For the first quarter of 2026, the TCT expects an improvement in the tourism confidence index, which is expected to reach 80, with 9.3 million arrivals, mainly thanks to European tourists and Chinese New Year holidays.
See: Chinese New Year in Thailand in 2026: the year of the fire horse
However, the risks for this period include smog (PM2.5), geopolitical conflicts, the slowdown in the Chinese economy and the increase in the cost of services and travel.
The TCT has suggested that Thailand focus on the high-spending Chinese tourist segment, while diversifying its targets towards other markets such as Europe, India, South Korea and the Middle East.
Domestic tourism under pressure and targets revised downwards
A tourist takes a selfie in a Thai temple. Photo: Bangkok Post.
Domestic tourism is hampered byhigh household debt, which forces residents to reduce the number of trips and turn more to special offers and promotions, the group noted.
On average, Thai tourists spent 3,906 bahts (105 euros) per trip, with 2.4 nights per trip, while foreigners spent 51,286 bahts (1,383 euros) per person, with 10.7 nights per trip in the fourth quarter of last year.
The TCT expects 34 million foreign arrivals this year, less than the target of 36.7 million set by the Thai National Tourism Office.
See also:
Thailand: what the tourism figures reveal in 2025
Reviving tourism in Thailand with a Disneyland-style park
Thailand boosts its tourism thanks to the boom in long-haul visitors
Source: Bangkok Post
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