Faced with a marked drop in arrivals and the rise of its neighbors , Thailand is seeing its tourism model put to the test.
This article looks back at the private sector's proposals to get the machine going again, in a context marked by trade tensions with the United States.
See also: Thailand's tourism faces a difficult year: a change of strategy
A decline in the first half of 2025
During the first six months of the year, Thailand recorded 17,754,055 international arrivals.
This represents a decrease of 5.62% compared to the same period in 2024.
In response to this situation, the Thai Retailers Association (TRA) is calling on the government to stimulate demand by launching initiatives such as " Thailand, a Shopping Paradise ."
The goal is to attract high value visitors.
A recovery plan focused on consumption
Among the proposals: an immediate refund of 7% of VAT in participating stores, to encourage tourists to spend more.
This pilot program would be accompanied by an ambitious objective: to achieve 7% growth in tourism by 2026.
The TRA also suggests reducing import duties on fashion, cosmetics and perfumes (currently between 20% and 30%) to boost the country's commercial attractiveness.
High targets despite the slowdown
The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) is nevertheless maintaining its forecast.
It is targeting 35.5 million international visitors by 2025, with 1.77 trillion baht in expected revenue.
Domestic tourism is expected to generate 205 million trips and an additional 1.1 trillion baht.
Combining the two, total tourism revenue is estimated at 2.87 trillion baht.
However, this is below the initial target of 3 trillion.
Growth below the global average
The Bank of Thailand (BOT) forecasts an average growth of 3.5% in the number of foreign tourists for 2025-2026.
This figure remains lower than the global growth estimated at 5% over the same period, notably due to regional competitive pressure.
The Chinese challenge and the security issue
According to Thienprasit Chaiyapatranun, president of the Thai Hotels Association (THA) , the industry faces several challenges: offsetting the current decline with zero growth this year and then achieving 7% growth in 2026.
He believes that only a strong increase in arrivals during the peak season (end of 2025) will make it possible to achieve the set targets.
However, the image of security, particularly among Chinese tourists, remains fragile.
The association notes that the daily number of Chinese arrivals, which now exceeds 10,000, is up from the 7,000 to 8,000 recorded previously, but remains far from the peak of 30,000 per day reached in the past.
Although this result is not entirely satisfactory, a return to previous levels is possible.
See: Thailand: Tourism collapses as Chinese visitors fall
Before the early 2025 concerns, the recovery rate of international tourism was 70% of pre-COVID levels, compared to 80-90% in other countries.
In 2024, Thailand welcomed 35.5 million tourists, below the record of 40 million reached in 2019.
Regional competition and Chinese incentives
In the second half of the year, tourism will come under severe pressure, particularly due to fierce competition from its Asian neighbors, such as Japan and Vietnam.
See: Japan dethrones Thailand as the preferred destination for Chinese people
Even China is trying to attract tourists with measures such as reimbursing 13% of VAT to foreign visitors to stimulate purchases.
US tariff threat
The new US tariffs are expected to take effect on August 1, 2025.
Thailand is affected by a high rate of 36% on certain products.
The potential impact of this measure will become clearer in the coming months.
The ongoing trade negotiations between "Team Thailand" and the United States could influence the country's competitiveness in the region.
See: US tariffs: Thailand risks USD 6.14 billion in export losses
Visas: towards a differentiated approach?
The Thai government currently grants 60-day visa exemptions to 93 countries.
See: What you need to know about new visas in Thailand
However, the THA is proposing a targeted review, particularly for markets such as China, where the duration could be reduced to 15 days to reflect actual visitor behaviour.
Mr. Thienprasit said:
"We believe it would not be detrimental to reduce the duration of the free visa for certain markets, such as China, which is currently 60 days.
It could be reduced to 15 days to reflect the actual behavior of tourists, similar to the 15-day free visa granted by Japan to Thais, rather than 60 days.
We are waiting to see whether the government will follow up on this proposal, which has been frequently made by the private sector, particularly since the emergence of security image problems in early 2025."
See: Travel to Thailand: Will the duration of visa-free stay soon be reduced?
Initiatives to stimulate tourism consumption
The TRA advocates for the creation of free zones in tourist provinces such as Phuket , the establishment of nationwide discount festivals and a visa extension for high-spending Russian tourists.
It also calls for increased cooperation between businesses, restaurants, hotels and SMEs to recreate a festive and consumer-friendly atmosphere throughout the country.
Fight against unfair practices
Finally, the TRA welcomes the government's efforts against illegal businesses operated by foreigners and against the importation of low-end products.
She calls for these measures to be rigorously pursued to preserve the competitiveness of Thai SMEs.
See: Thailand targets shell companies responsible for $468 million in losses
Between external pressures, the current model's failure and hopes for recovery, Thailand is playing a big role in its ability to reinvent more qualitative and competitive tourism.
See also:
Thailand's Tourism Trends 2025 According to Agoda
Thailand: Subsidy to boost domestic tourism flops
Tourism plummets, industry declines: Thailand's economy slows
Thailand's tourism plunge sends AoT shares plummeting
Thailand Tourism: Wealthy Europeans Boost Low Season
Source: The Nation Thailand
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2 comments
Let the Bank of Thailand officials start by stabilizing the still volatile and unstable baht, with a reference exchange rate for the main world currencies between 34 and 35 THB / 1 dollar and between 39 and 40 THB / 1 euro!!!
This would allow all foreign tourists to get more baht, to spend more during their holidays in all local shops, restaurants, bars, for their excursions and other visits and entertainment.
This would help all sectors that depend on tourism and would be an incentive for the general return of foreign visitors who have been avoiding Thailand, notably for other reasons mentioned elsewhere, because of an artificially "expensive" currency compared to its real value and other regional currencies...
The phenomenon is significantly noticeable in comparison to Vietnam and Japan, whose Yen has lost between 12 and 15% of its value for more than a year, leading to greater purchasing power for tourists and a significant increase in the overall annual number of visitors in 2024 and 2025...
This would also help revitalize exports of manufactured and other goods, which would become cheaper and more competitive, to all European and African countries, Central and South America and Australia. This could also slow down exports to the United States, thus reducing the impact of the tariffs planned by Trump for August 1.
But the leaders of the Thai Central Bank are stubbornly sticking to the line of a strong and expensive baht, currently trading at 31.8 THB/1 dollar and 37 THB/1 euro, and have so far resisted the numerous repeated requests over the past two years from political, economic and industrial circles to bring the baht back to a value that would allow for the revitalization of foreign trade and domestic currency inflows, thus promoting an increase in the income of a large part of the population...
Always know how to play the flute, Thailand and its incompetent ministers, a country that has become as expensive as Europe, it's no wonder tourists go elsewhere.